Talking Walk-Offs Over at Baseball Analysts

Written by Larry Granillo on .

The good folks over at Baseball Analysts - a truly fantastic baseball blog, if you don't already know - were kind enough to invite me to write a guest post for them today. I don't know exactly what got over me, but I decided to take a comprehensive look at walk-off hits in the Retrosheet era.

Walk-off home runs have already been studied, so I went ahead and looked at everything else. So, if you're wondering who has the most walk-off hits in their career... or what pitcher was on the wrong end of the walk-off most often... or even who scored the walk-off game-winning run the most, click on over to read the (probably way too long) post. Heck, go ahead and click over anyway. There are lots of tables to read, at the very least.

See you over there.

Archive Diving: The Black Ink and Gray Ink Tests

Written by Larry Granillo on .

Sorry for not posting anything yesterday. I've been working on something kind of big these last few days. It should be up sometime later today.

In the meantime, I thought it'd be a good idea to continue the Archive Diving series so that anyone new to Wezen-Ball.com can get a good sense of what we're about. For today, I'm taking us back to one of the first few stats-driven pieces that I wrote.

The "Black Ink" and "Gray Ink" tests over at Baseball Reference are an interesting little way to rate players, assigning points for the various categories that they led the league in (or were in the top 10 in) over their career. They can be used to give one a rough idea of a player's worth during his career, and might signify a Hall of Fame candidate. After Tom Stone from Seamheads.com pointed out that there isn't really a resource for year-by-year Black Ink and Gray Ink leaders, I took it upon myself to fix that. I even modified the standard Gray Ink Test to weight a player's finish in a particular stat (i.e., a 7th place finish in home runs earns you less points than a 1st place finish).

Here, then, are the single season leaders for the Black Ink Test and Gray Ink Test. There are some truly remarkable seasons to be found (like Walter Johnson in 1913, Joe Medwick in 1937, and even Randy Johnson in 2002). Go take a look and let me know what you think.

Archive Diving: Albert Pujols vs. Frank Thomas

Written by Larry Granillo on .

The very first post that I put up over at the old blog was basically a reprint of a post that I had written on the Bill James Online forums. At the time, I had no real plans for the blog, so I was using it as a central place to store my online writings. The post was this one, comparing the first eight years of Albert Pujols' career with the first eight years of Frank Thomas'.

This was originally written in November of last year, so Prince Albert's 2009 season was yet to be determined. That makes the analysis a little dated, but I think it's still worth reading. And, considering all the random visitors that I would get to people reading that post, it seems like a no-brainer to include it here as part of the "Archive Diving" series.

In short, the point that I was trying to make in the article was that, as great as Pujols is, Thomas was nearly as great of a player back in the early-'90s. People were saying the same thing about Thomas then that they're saying about Pujols now - that he is going to go down as the greatest first-baseman of all-time. And, with Thomas, it was just as easy to believe then as it is with Pujols now. Instead, though, time and injuries damaged the Big Hurt so much that, while still a Hall of Famer, those superlatives are no longer applicable. So let's be a little more patient with Pujols before we anoint him as the greatest of all time. There is still a lot that can happen to him before his legacy is complete.

This is how I ended the article:

I imagine a lot of people will read this and bring up a lot of good points why Albert won't turn into Frank, and I will believe every single one of them. But I'll also believe all the arguments in the other direction, where one brings up Albert's scary brush with Tommy John surgery or something else. In either case, I'm rooting for Pujols because I want to say that I was able to watch the greatest first baseman of all-time play for many years. I like the way the guy plays, and I hope nothing but the best. I just think it's important to remember just how certain we were about Thomas back in the day too, and that didn't quite turn out as we hoped.

Now, go read the whole thing and tell me why I'm wrong: Albert Pujols vs. Frank Thomas.

Archive Diving: Baseball's "New Elite"

Written by Larry Granillo on .

There was quite the stink raised this weekend when newly minted Hall of Famer - and notorious sourpuss - Jim Rice made some comments to a group of Little Leaguers that appeared to lump Derek Jeter in with the likes of Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez as those that "are setting a bad example for the young guys." Rice would later go on to say that he was "misquoted" and that it was blown out of proportion because of the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry. I'm not sure I agree with him. Here's what he said:

“You see a Manny Ramirez, you see an A-Rod (Alex Rodriguez), you see (Derek) Jeter ... Guys that I played against and with, these guys you’re talking about cannot compare,” Rice said to Little Leaguers gathered in the cafeteria.

"We didn’t have the baggy uniforms. We didn’t have the dreadlocks,” Rice said. “It was a clean game, and now they’re setting a bad example for the young guys.”

Sounds to me like a classic case of "everything was better in *my* day". It shouldn't come as a surprise, though, considering that Rice has always been known as a grump and that he did spend the last 15 years waiting around for the Hall to call. I can't imagine his demeanor got any better during that time.

Of course, Rice was conveniently forgetting many things about the era that he played in, from the Oscar Gamble afro to the "money grubbing" complaints that the owners (and fans) threw on the stars of the day as they entered the free agency era to the surliness of players like Reggie Jackson and Rice himself and, finally, to the cocaine and drug issues that were so prevalent - and damaging - in the '80s. It wasn't exactly the cleanest era to be a player in.

This is far from new, though. There's hardly a time when the disciples of one generation (the fans, the writers, the players) aren't complaining about the current generation. I actually discussed a great example of this in May, when Sean Forman linked to an article he found in a 1950 issue of Baseball Digest called "Baseball's New Elite." In that article, the author complains about this "new era of ballplayer" who cares too much about getting a cigarette endorsement and not enough about the game on the field. In the meantime, he indicts (by association) such paragons as Stan Musial, Warren Spahn, and Duke Snider. It's a good reminder as to why we shouldn't listen to these old curmudgeons when they break out the "In my day...!"-routine and a good excuse to take another walk through the Wezen-Ball archives. Enjoy.

Is 2009 the Year of the "Feat"?

Written by Larry Granillo on .

Yesterday afternoon, Philadelphia second-baseman Eric Bruntlett was in the right place at the right time when Jeff Francouer smoked a line drive up the middle. Bruntlett, who was busy rushing to cover second-base from the hit-and-running baserunners, was half a step away from the bag when he pulled the ball out of the air for the first out. In less than two seconds, he was stepping on the bag for the second out and turning around to tag Daniel Murphy out for the game-ending third out.

In those two seconds, Bruntlett became the 15th player in major league history to turn an unassisted triple play. It was the third year in a row that an unassisted triple play was turned, with Bruntlett joining Asdrubal Cabrera and Troy Tulowitzki in the club.

What's more, the triple play also marked the 2009 season as only the third time in history that the four "banner feats" of baseball were all achieved in the same year. With Jonathan Sanchez's no-hitter, Mark Buehrle's perfect game, and the seven cycles that we have already seen, the unassisted triple play was all that was missing, and Bruntlett made short work of that.

The last time it happened was in 1994, when Kenny Rogers pitched a perfect game, Kent Mercker and Scott Erickson threw no-hitters, John Valentin turned the triple play and Scott Cooper hit for the cycle. The only other season to see all four feats was 1968, when four pitchers threw no-hitters to go along with Catfish Hunter's perfect game.

(please click "read more" to continue reading)

Archive Diving: Appreciating Baseball Reference

Written by Larry Granillo on .

With the move over to the new digs here at the Bloguin network, I thought it might be a good idea to dive into the archives everyday for the next week or so to highlight some past work that any new readers might not have had a chance to read.

For the first walk through the archives, I thought I'd tie things back to this morning's post. In the morning post, I used the Multi-Team or Multi-Franchise tool from Baseball Reference to look at players who had played for both ends of a rivalry. Well, Baseball Reference is a fantastic tool that everyone should (and almost certainly does) use; I can't recommend it highly enough.

Back in February, I put my money where my mouth was and sponsored a bunch of BR pages. It's worth looking at again, so we can all fully appreciate Baseball Reference.

Spurning Your Fan Base

Written by Larry Granillo on .

I've been trying to get my head around this whole Brett Favre thing the last few days. Forgetting about the whole "retired-not retired-retired again-not retired again" thing, it's still a remarkably odd story: Favre, beloved to the point of worship in Green Bay, spurns his entire legacy to play one (or two) more season with the Packers' most bitter rival, their divisional foe, the Minnesota Vikings.

This isn't Orel Hershiser playing out the string of his career on teams like the Indians, Mets, andGiants. And this isn't Johnny Damon moving to the Yankees after a few (celebrated) years in Boston. True, those two were both fan favorites and even playoff heroes, helping lead the Dodgers and Red Sox to World Series victories, but neither are even close to the level that Brett Favre achieved in America's Dairyland.

In fact, the only analogue that I can think of that seems at all reasonable is a hypothetical one: the baseball equivalent of Brett Favre playing for the Vikings would be Cal Ripken leaving the Orioles after a falling out and then playing for the Yankees. The analogy is a little weak in that the Orioles-Yankees "rivalry" is laughable when compared to the Vikings-Packers (or any other major rivalry). Other than that, though, it works great. Favre and Ripken were both clean-cut, hard-working, "go out there and play everyday"-type guys who were the clear leaders on their teams and who penetrated the national consciousness like few others. "Golden boys", some might say (*ahem*Jose Canseco*ahem*). Favre may not have been a hometown boy who came up through the team's system like Ripken, but he was adopted as such pretty early on in his career. And, as good as they each were in their primes, they were both overrated as they aged, getting a little too much credit for their past successes when they were clearly beyond that talent-level (and I say that as someone who collected - and still owns - over 200 different Cal Ripken baseball cards as a child).

Let's imagine, then, the relationship between Ripken and the Orioles souring so much that he would leave the team to play for the Yankees: the strangeness of Cal in pinstripes, the animosity that O's fans might feel for him, the awkwardness that would follow him the first time the Yankees visited Baltimore... all of that is what is currently happening over in the NFL, and it's just ridiculous. I still don't know what Favre is thinking, and I live here in Milwaukee!

Anyhow, after all of that, I thought it might be interesting to see what the biggest names are to have ever moved to their rival team. Again, I'm not looking for the likes of Orel Hershiser or Johnny Damon on this list. Players like that, while strange to see in a different uniform, don't quite reach the levels that I'm thinking of. Using the Multi-Franchise or Multi-Team tool over at Baseball Reference, I looked at every player who played for both teams in some of MLB's greatest rivalries, searching for "big name players" who ended up playing for their main rival after achieving immortality with their first club. While the Cubs/Cardinals and Red Sox/Yankees had a few interesting candidates, the two best examples, by far, were found in the West Coast rivalry:

Welcome to the New Wezen-Ball.com!

Written by Larry Granillo on .

Welcome to the newly redesigned Wezen-Ball.com!

I've followed my friend Jason from It's About the Money, Stupid! over to the Bloguin network, and I couldn't be more excited. Besides these fancy new digs (seriously, don't you just love that banner?), which even include a forum, I get to join a great network of sports and entertainment bloggers. You can find a link to the growing number of Bloguin blogs over there on the left. I seriously suggest you check them out when you have a chance.

As for me, well, it's going to be more of the same. For those of you who were with me at the old location, you know what the site is about, and it's not going to change at all. You can expect the same posts, the same topics, and the same general attitude. I was even able to import all of the posts from the other location (you can find them above in the Archives) and you shouldn't have to change your RSS feeds, either.

If you're new to the blog, though, I suppose a little introduction is in order. You can read more of the particulars over to the right in the "About Me" section (including the "reason" for the name of the blog), but for now here are a few things that you're going to find at Wezen-Ball.com:

The Triple Crown, the .400 Club, and the Greatest Year since 1941

Written by Larry Granillo on .

There's been a lot of talk recently about Joe Mauer, including talk about his MVP case and his chances of finishing the season with a .400 batting average. In both cases, Pos and his Mauer Pauer series are leading proponents.

What hasn't been mentioned as often, though, is the possibility of Albert Pujols winning the Triple Crown this year. Granted, he's currently close behind Prince Fielder in the RBI category (105 to 107) and (fairly) significantly behind Hanley Ramirez in batting average (.325 to .356). But, with seven weeks left in the season, there's still plenty of time for those leaderboards to change.

Bill, over at The Daily Something, and David, from Baseball Musings, both took a look at the math to see what the real odds are. It's no surprise to learn that it isn't all that likely to happen because, let's face it, it never is. It might surprise you, though, to learn just how likely it really is. These are much better odds than most people ever have in mid-August. Bill and David did great work, and you really should give them a read to see what they determined.

So, with neither Pujols' shot at the Triple Crown nor Mauer's shot at .400 being laughably absurd, the question becomes, how fantastic would it be if both feats were achieved in the same season? When that question was brought up in the comments over at The Daily Something, I just about got chills.

With neither feat having been accomplished in over 40 years (with it being nearly 70 years for the .400 club), this would be one of the greatest seasons ever. In fact, if that were to happen, it'd battle with the 1941 season as the two greatest offensive seasons in baseball history. DiMaggio & Williams could even realistically be replaced with Mauer & Pujols. It would be remarkable. And then, when you consider that it'd be two Midwest teams making that kind of history, it'd be taken to a whole other level.

Now, clearly this is a pipe dream and it's nothing that we should realistically be entertaining until September 30. But the fact that we can even conceive of the chance in mid-August without laughing it away immediately is something to get excited about. I know what I'm rooting for the rest of the season.

Working Behind the Scenes

Written by Larry Granillo on .

I know I've said this a few too many times recently, but it's looking like the next few days might be a little slow. This time, though, it's for some internal reasons. I have some exciting new blog stuff that I'm in the middle of working on, and I hope to have it done by the end of the week.

Knowing me, I'll probably end up writing a nice long piece anyway, but don't count on it. Hopefully, as things get closer to being finished, I'll be comfortable sharing the big news. Until then, I'll keep plugging away.

You can certainly follow me on Twitter, if you're looking for some random comments from me throughout the day, or maybe take a look at the new Facebook fan page I created. I like it better than the older, Networked Blogs one. I hope to see you there, and I'll be sure to let you know what's going on as things get closer to being done.