I was only able to watch a little of the Brewers-Cubs game last night (and boy am I thankful for that), but I did notice something that struck me as interesting. At the start of the game, when Milton Bradley came to bat for the first time, he was sitting on 39 RBI. This is a player who gets the majority of his at-bats in the middle of the lineup and is paid to be a "run-producer". A total of 39 RBI for the season just seemed really low.

Now, I know there are a couple of issues with that observation. One, it's not as if people are going around proclaiming the Bradley signing to be a big success. He's having a poor year, and so it shouldn't be a shock to see some deflated numbers. And, two, the RBI is still a stat with many, many flaws, and should never be used as a key metric for measuring a player's value.

With that said, the 39 RBIs for a (typically) middle-of-the-order batter on September 15th (40 RBI now, after last night's game) just sounds historically low, and it seemed worth investigating: in a high-scoring environment like today's MLB, has any middle-of-the-order hitter ever finished with that few RBIs? And, if so, is it merely a function of fewer RBI opportunities, or is it poor hitting?

As a baseline for comparison, here are Bradley's relevant stats for 2009, as of Tuesday morning (thanks to Baseball Reference and Baseball Prospectus):

PA	PA (Middle Lineup)	Total RBI	PA (ROB)	Total ROB	Total RBI - HR	ROB%
463	316	39	201	277	27	9.7

Using the Retrosheet data through last year, I counted all players' RBIs and RBI Opportunities. I then limited the list to those who got at least 300 plate appearances in the middle of the batting order (i.e., the 3-, 4-, or 5-hitters). I used that as a cutoff so that we could more easily compare Bradley's 2009 season to everyone else.

It turns out that Bradley's 39 RBIs as a middle-of-the-order hitter, while low, is hardly historic. If the season ended before yesterday's game, that total would place him tied for 34th fewest in the Retrosheet era. The "leader", unsurprisingly, is from the pitcher's heydey of 1966, when the Dodgers' Tommy Davis had only 27 RBIs in 100 games and 330 PAs. What is surprising, though, is just how high the 2008 version of Todd Helton was. The Top 10:

(please click "Read More" to keep reading)

Fewest RBIs by Player with 300+ Middle-of-the-Order PAs, since 1954
Player.............Year.....PAs.....RBIs...ROB%
Tommy Davis........1966.....330.....27.....11.1
Larry Biittner.....1975.....384.....28.....9.9
Todd Helton........2008.....361.....29.....10.3 
Matty Alou.........1973.....550.....29.....7.7
Leron Lee..........1973.....368.....30.....11.3
Dee Fondy..........1956.....404.....30.....10.8
Andy Van Slyke.....1994.....430.....30.....9.4 
Eric Davis.........1992.....308.....32.....12.0 
Mike Epstein.......1968.....448.....33.....7.3 
Steve Ontiveros....1974.....403.....33.....11.7 
Eric Davis.........1991.....340.....33.....10.6

It might be more appropriate to limit the dates, though. So here's the leaderboard since 1993:

Fewest RBIs by Player with 300+ Middle-of-the-Order PAs, since 1993
Player............Year.....PAs.....RBIs...ROB%
Todd Helton.......2008.....361.....29.....10.3
Andy Van Slyke....1994.....430.....30.....9.4
Corey Koskie......2005.....404.....36.....10.2
Bobby Crosby......2005.....371.....38.....11.8
Milton Bradley....2005.....315.....38.....12.9
Hal Morris........1998.....516.....40.....11.9
Fred McGriff......2003.....329.....40.....13
J.T. Snow.........2005.....410.....40.....13.8
Jim Eisenreich....1996.....373.....41.....15.4
Orlando Hudson....2008.....455.....41.....12.4
Phil Plantier.....1994.....385.....41.....8.6
Jeffrey Hammonds..2002.....510.....41.....11.3

Again, seeing Helton at the top of the list is rather interesting to see, especially considering that, with a ROB percentage of 10.3%, it's as much his fault as anything else. Also, it should be noted that Bradley's 2009 season, if it were to end today, would show up on this leaderboard. There are enough games left in the season for him to pull himself off the board, though.

Finally, I thought it'd be fair to re-order the list, ranking by ROB%. Why should Helton be at the top of the list when he just had fewer opportunities than a guy like Phil Plantier? Here's that leaderboard:

Lowest ROB% by Player with 300+ Middle-of-the-Order PAs, since 1993
Player............Year.....PAs.....RBIs...ROB%
Phil Plantier....1994.....385.....41.....8.6
Andy Van Slyke...1994.....430.....30.....9.4
Corey Koskie.....2005.....404.....36.....10.2
Todd Helton......2008.....361.....29.....10.3
Ed Sprague.......1997.....562.....48.....10.3
Carlos Pena......2003.....516.....50.....10.5
Morgan Ensberg...2006.....495.....58.....10.6
Adam Dunn........2002.....676.....71.....10.6
Robin Ventura....2001.....549.....61.....10.8
Ty Wigginton.....2007.....604.....67.....10.9

However you slice it, that 1994 Andy Van Slyke season just was not good. It's amazing that he got 403 plate appearances in the heart of the lineup (and, considering that it was the strike year, that represents a pretty complete year). The 2009 Milton Bradley would also find himself near the top of this list if the season were to end today, with an ROB% of 9.7%. I don't think there's any other way to say it: he's just not having a good year (wow, bold, right?).

You can find a spreadsheet with more of this data here.

Comments (2)

Subscribe to this comment's feed

...
written by Bill@TDS, September 16, 2009

Good stuff. I noted in my post on Monday that Bob Allison's 52 RBI in 1968 seemed really low for a pretty good middle-of-the-order hitter in front of Carew, Oliva and Killebrew (and it IS really low--he had 415 PA in the 4th and 5th slots, 318 ROB, 9.4%), but compared to Mike Epstein that year, Allison was a regular Ryan Howard...

• 
• +0
• 
• 

...
written by lar @ wezen-ball, September 16, 2009

Good point, Bill, and good find yourself. I must've missed that. Looking at the spreadsheet I linked above, those 52 RBIs land him in the top 150 of all players since 1954. But that was purely a result of Carew, et all hitting ahead of him because that 9.4% you point out ties him for 9th worst in the last 55 years. It's definitely a sign of the times, but it also shows you just how good Carew, Killebrew, and Oliva were. When your #5 hitter is that bad at getting the runners home but he still knocks in 52 (or, really, knocks in 30, since he had 22 HR), then you know those guys got on base a lot.

• 
• +0
• 
• 

Name

Email

Website

Title

Comment

smaller | bigger

Subscribe via email (registered users only)

Add Comment